8/27/08

FMEA/Risk Assessments for Adaptation Planning

A lot of times nothing gets done because data is unavailable. I remember my experience in manufacturing, was that the factory bosses would be ticked off if nothing was done because data was unavailable. As engineers, we learned to assess risks. In the absence of data we would assume the worst case scenario and recommend actions around that. It meant shutting down production lines until bad material was identified and quarantined. In the same way, climate risk assessments ought to be done by local gov't units based on anecdotal or limited data available. These risk should be plotted in an FMEA (Failure Modes and Effects Analysis) table based on current knowledge. As new info comes,RPNs ( risk priority numbers) associated with each "failure" (in this case catastrophe) mode are modified to reflect current reality. RPNs are calculated based on Severity of Impact, Frequency and Early Detectability. With the use of RPNs, resources are properly managed to address vulnerabilities.

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