Is Climate Change Real?

I recently had a discussion with my wife about climate change. She was testing whether or not I accepted the validity of the problem as a mere result of Al Gore's movie. She wanted to know if I went through the data and formed my conclusions from it. Fortunately my background in Physics, compelled me to that previously.

Why do I believe that Climate Change is real? The empirical data shows it. Since the middle of last century, an increase of atmospheric CO2 has been recorded. This has been correlated to an increase in global average temperature in the same period. Current computational studies have concluded this as due to human induced greenhouse gas emissions. This is stated in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Some say correlation doesn't mean anything but rather a scientific way to say its a coincidence. Having worked in the semiconductor industry, I've considered statistical signals as trigger conditions for action. When we see violations of the rules of statistical process control, we jump and work on finding root cause. We would then work on establishing cause or effect by an experiment using DOE or Taguchi techniques. Ultimately, this leads to finding an effective solution. The climate and CO2 data have definitely violated the 7 point rule a long time ago.

Establishing root cause is a bit more difficult than a typical engineering problem. The system under consideration is a complex one. I encounter blogs that conclude global warming is a hoax because of the absence of a deterministic equation relating CO2 and Global Mean Temperature. If I had a purely engineering background I would also make the same conclusion. This is where physics kicks in.

Complex systems do not follow simple equations but rather the physics of chaotic sytems. A good example would be fractals where you find repeating order in the midst of what appears to be random. Chaotic systems move toward attractor equations rather than being governed by simple equations . By understanding the attractors of a system, one can do the variable variations needed to study a phenomenon numerically. The resulting model is then calibrated with empirical data. Once a model is developed, it is published and reviewed by experts all over the world to see if the scientific process was followed regardless of the results. This is the check and balance culture intrisic in the scientific community.

The reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the work of people from 130 countries. It involves 450 lead authors, 800 contributing authors and 2500 technical reviewers. I have talked to a member of the panel and learned the high level of conservativeness in reporting the data and making conclusions. As an example, their models do not include the impact of land based ice sheets to sea level rise. To accuse this work as consipiracy would be naive.

To end this blog, I would like you to consider your own views on Climate Change. If you find it difficult to accept, ask yourself why? Is it really because of the science or is it because it threatens your current way of life. You can always deny something but it will never affect its validity.

Reforestation Efforts of Napocor

Our whole family went to Caliraya,Laguna today to plant trees in denuded portions of the Napocor's (National Power Corp of the Philippines) Watershed. Caliraya is a man-made lake, home to about 600MW of hydro-electric power. A couple of decades ago, Napocor started selling lands in the lake area which have become the location of popular resorts in this locale. It was a fresh look at Caliraya, coming here not to enjoy ourselves but to do our part in fulfilling the Edenic mandate. With about 600 volunteers, we were able to plant 7000 trees in about 2 hours. WOW!!! Can't wait to see happens when the other planting sessions in October and Novemer are done.

Napocor, has been very active in conserving watersheds in their areas because of their direct relationship to hydro power output. In Angat dam (Norzagaray, Bulacan), we saw Napocor's well maintained secondary growth forest, having an 84% cover and sightings of the Philippine Eagle. This is a stark and ironic contrast to the neighboring Ipo dam managed by the DENR (Dept of Natural Resources) and the MWSS (Metropolitan Waterworks and Sewerage System). The Angat watershed was the source of all the seedlings we used in today's session. A couple of months back, our whole family helped out in preparing seedlings by bagging saplings in Angat. There was some fulfilment to see our seedlings finally put to the ground.

It is very important that each one of us realize the importance of the water cycle. Only ~2% of the world's water supply is potable and accessible. The advent of climate change, makes forests vulnerable to fires and heat damage. If the forests die, the ability of watersheds to collect and retain water will be destroyed. This means water will be come more inaccessible, leading to problems such as rice production drops and digestive tract diseases. (If you live in Paranaque or Las Pinas, you may have an idea of what this means.) It is therefore our responsibility to ensure that unnecessary forest damage is avoided.

To end today's blog, I would like to congratulate Noel Umali, Head of Napocor's Watershed Mgmt group, for consistently doing a great job in maintaining Napocor's forests. I would aslo congratulate Liesl Lim and Garrie David, of the Presidential Task Force on Climate Change (PTFCC), for the successful tree planting activity they organized today. Thanks guys!!!

If anyone wants to join the next tree planting activies on October 11 and November 8, send a mail to ptfcc.mail@gmail.com to express your interest.