Is Climate Change Real?

I recently had a discussion with my wife about climate change. She was testing whether or not I accepted the validity of the problem as a mere result of Al Gore's movie. She wanted to know if I went through the data and formed my conclusions from it. Fortunately my background in Physics, compelled me to that previously.

Why do I believe that Climate Change is real? The empirical data shows it. Since the middle of last century, an increase of atmospheric CO2 has been recorded. This has been correlated to an increase in global average temperature in the same period. Current computational studies have concluded this as due to human induced greenhouse gas emissions. This is stated in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Some say correlation doesn't mean anything but rather a scientific way to say its a coincidence. Having worked in the semiconductor industry, I've considered statistical signals as trigger conditions for action. When we see violations of the rules of statistical process control, we jump and work on finding root cause. We would then work on establishing cause or effect by an experiment using DOE or Taguchi techniques. Ultimately, this leads to finding an effective solution. The climate and CO2 data have definitely violated the 7 point rule a long time ago.

Establishing root cause is a bit more difficult than a typical engineering problem. The system under consideration is a complex one. I encounter blogs that conclude global warming is a hoax because of the absence of a deterministic equation relating CO2 and Global Mean Temperature. If I had a purely engineering background I would also make the same conclusion. This is where physics kicks in.

Complex systems do not follow simple equations but rather the physics of chaotic sytems. A good example would be fractals where you find repeating order in the midst of what appears to be random. Chaotic systems move toward attractor equations rather than being governed by simple equations . By understanding the attractors of a system, one can do the variable variations needed to study a phenomenon numerically. The resulting model is then calibrated with empirical data. Once a model is developed, it is published and reviewed by experts all over the world to see if the scientific process was followed regardless of the results. This is the check and balance culture intrisic in the scientific community.

The reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the work of people from 130 countries. It involves 450 lead authors, 800 contributing authors and 2500 technical reviewers. I have talked to a member of the panel and learned the high level of conservativeness in reporting the data and making conclusions. As an example, their models do not include the impact of land based ice sheets to sea level rise. To accuse this work as consipiracy would be naive.

To end this blog, I would like you to consider your own views on Climate Change. If you find it difficult to accept, ask yourself why? Is it really because of the science or is it because it threatens your current way of life. You can always deny something but it will never affect its validity.